The national races that shape Georgia.

The Senate seat

Republican Mike Collins, the congressman from Georgia's 10th District, is challenging Senator Jon Ossoff, the Democrat first elected in the 2021 runoff. Collins finished first in a five-way May 19 primary with 40.5% and won the June 16 runoff against Derek Dooley, 55.5% to 44.5%, after President Trump endorsed him.

Georgia is one of the seats that decides the chamber. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, which makes holding this seat a precondition for them, and Republicans entered the cycle treating it as their best pickup opportunity. Georgia's recent results cut both ways: President Trump carried the state in 2024, 50.7% to 48.5%, and Governor Kemp won reelection in 2022 by 7.5 points, while Ossoff won his seat in a runoff. Through the summer the national forecasters rated the race Tilt Democratic (Inside Elections), Lean Democratic (Cook) and Likely Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball), and Ossoff led most public polls released over the summer.

An open governor's race

Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, and the race to succeed him is the closest on the ballot. Businessman Rick Jackson won the Republican nomination, beating Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones in the June 16 runoff, 52.6% to 47.4%, after Jones led the first round. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic primary outright with 56.2%. Cook, Inside Elections and Decision Desk HQ all rate the race a toss-up, and September polling averages had the two candidates within about two points of each other.

A toss-up at the top means heavy spending and heavy attention in metro Atlanta through Election Day, which is good for turnout and expensive for everyone trying to be heard beneath it. Republicans have won every Georgia governor's race since 2002.

The rest of the statewide ballot

Below the top two races, every constitutional office is on the ballot, and three of the four most consequential are open seats. Republicans hold the governor's office and every other statewide executive office elected in 2022:

Every seat in the General Assembly is also up: 56 in the state Senate and 180 in the House. Most district attorneys, county commissions, school boards and sheriffs chose their nominees in May, so their general election contests share the same ballot.

The House map

None of Georgia's 14 congressional districts is rated competitive: Republicans hold nine and Democrats five, and each is solidly held. The interest is in the open seats. The 1st and 10th are open because Buddy Carter and Mike Collins ran for the Senate, and the 11th has a new Republican nominee. In the 13th, Representative David Scott died in April; State Representative Jasmine Clark is the Democratic nominee. Safe House seats do little to drive turnout on their own, which leaves the statewide races to do it.

Why the top of the ticket sets the bottom

Georgia's midterm electorate is consistently about three quarters the size of its presidential electorate. In 2018 and 2022 about 3.95 million votes were cast for governor; in 2020 and 2024, about 5 million or more were cast for president. In Fulton, the 2022 governor's race drew 78% of the votes the county cast for president in 2024.

Who fills that smaller electorate is decided mostly at the top of the ticket: by national attention, by the money spent on the Senate and governor's races, and by how hard each side works to bank votes during early voting. In Georgia, the midterm electorate has favored Republicans for governor: Kemp won both of his races in midterm years. A county commission or state House campaign does not choose its electorate. It inherits it from the races above, and then competes for the voters who arrive.

A local campaign does not choose its electorate. It inherits it from the top of the ticket, then competes for the voters who arrive.

What it means for a campaign

1. Budget for a crowded OctoberTwo expensive statewide races will dominate television and digital inventory in metro Atlanta. Local campaigns get more for their money at the door, in the inbox and in Spanish-language channels.
2. Ride the turnout, do not count on itHigher statewide attention brings voters to the polls, but they arrive knowing the top of the ballot. Down-ballot campaigns still have to introduce themselves to them.
3. Plan for December 1Any race without a majority goes to a runoff four weeks later, with a much smaller electorate. A runoff plan written before November 3 is worth more than one written after.