How Fulton County votes, precinct by precinct.

Three counties in one

Countywide, Fulton is not close. Donald Trump won 26.9% of the presidential vote in 2024 and Kamala Harris 71.5%, a margin of about 240,000 votes. That number is accurate and nearly useless for planning a campaign, because Fulton is really three electorates that share a county line, and one of them is competitive.

North Fulton, from Sandy Springs and Roswell to Alpharetta, Johns Creek and Milton, cast 209,000 presidential votes and split 52.5% for Harris to 46.1% for Trump. It is a swing county on its own, it casts almost as many votes as the City of Atlanta, and two thirds of Fulton's Trump votes (66.6%) were cast there. The city's 185 precincts cast 224,000 votes and gave Harris 81.6%. South Fulton, from East Point and College Park to Union City, Fairburn and Chattahoochee Hills, cast 103,000 votes and gave her 90.1%.

Every precinct, in order

Line up all 466 precincts from most to least Republican, give each one a width equal to the votes it cast, and the shape of the county appears. On the left, Trump carried 52 precincts. Next to them sits a band of 102 precincts decided by less than 20 points, holding 172,000 votes, roughly a third of the county. On the right, 198 precincts voted 90% or more for Harris.

Half of Fulton's votes came from a fifth of its precincts. A plan that treats every precinct alike spends most of its time where the race is not decided.

Size matters as much as lean. The 93 largest precincts, a fifth of the total, cast 46% of all votes. The median precinct cast 929 presidential votes; the largest, in Roswell, cast 4,184. A door in a 4,000-vote precinct and a door in a 400-vote precinct cost the same to knock, and they are not worth the same.

Where persuasion lives

Of the 102 competitive precincts, 87 are in North Fulton. Narrow the band to precincts decided by 10 points or less and 56 remain, casting 111,000 votes, concentrated in Sandy Springs, Roswell, Alpharetta and Johns Creek, with nine inside the city. This is where Republican candidates compete in Fulton, and where a persuasion message, a contrast sheet and a second knock earn their cost.

The lopsided precincts are not unimportant. They are a turnout problem rather than a persuasion problem. In a 92% precinct, every extra voter a campaign brings out is worth almost a full vote of margin; in a 50% precinct, persuading one voter is worth two. Both math problems are real, and a field plan should name which one it is solving in each precinct.

The midterm electorate is a different electorate

The 2026 ballot will not look like 2024's. In the last midterm, Fulton cast 419,884 votes for governor, 78% of the 535,220 it cast for president two years later. Statewide the pattern is the same: about 3.95 million votes for governor in 2018 and 2022 against roughly 5 million or more for president in 2020 and 2024.

The quarter of voters who skip midterms are not spread evenly, and the pattern matters for Republicans. Between 2022 and 2024, turnout in matched precincts grew 25% in North Fulton, 22% in the city and 18% in South Fulton: the midterm drop-off is steepest in North Fulton, where most of the county's Republican votes are. A campaign that plans from presidential-year numbers will overestimate the electorate, and a Republican campaign will overestimate it most among its own voters.

Election Day is three weeks long

In 2022, 67% of Fulton's votes for governor were cast in person during early voting, 27% on Election Day and 5.5% by mail. In 2024 early in-person voting reached 77% of ballots and Election Day fell to 17%. South Fulton votes earliest of all: 74% early in 2022.

The practical consequence is a calendar, not a statistic. Mail, digital and field have to peak before early voting opens, not before Election Day, and poll greeters belong at early voting sites ranked by how many target voters use them. For 2026, early voting runs from October 13 to October 30.

What moved since 2022

Comparing the Democratic share of the two-party vote for governor in 2022 with the presidential vote in 2024, in the 282 precincts that kept their lines and cast at least 500 votes both times, the median precinct moved 2 points toward Democrats. The movement was not even. Northwest Atlanta precincts in the 08 series, around Buckhead, moved 12 to 14 points toward Democrats, the largest shifts in the county. Several heavily Democratic precincts in South Fulton and southwest Atlanta moved 3 to 6 points the other way, from very high starting points.

A caution on this comparison: it sets one candidate and office against another. Some of the movement reflects Governor Kemp's strength with suburban voters in 2022 rather than a change in the voters themselves. It is a map of where voters are willing to split their tickets, and for a Republican running down the ballot, Kemp voters who did not vote Republican for president in 2024 are a natural persuasion target.

The bottom of the ballot

Fewer people vote down the ballot. In 2024, 535,220 Fulton voters chose a president, 525,275 a member of Congress and 522,304 a district attorney, 2.4% fewer. The drop is larger in the city than in the north or south. For a county or city race, that means some of a campaign's own supporters will reach the end of the ballot without voting in it unless someone has told them the race is there.

What it means for a campaign

1. Name the job in every precinctTurnout where your voters are, persuasion where the race is close. For a Republican campaign in Fulton, the 56 precincts within 10 points, most of them in North Fulton, are where persuasion pays.
2. Plan from the midterm, not the last presidentialExpect an electorate around three quarters the size of 2024's, and expect it to shrink most in North Fulton, where Republican votes are concentrated.
3. Peak before early voting opensThree of every four Fulton ballots are now cast early. The campaign's Election Day starts on October 13.
4. Tell supporters the race is on the ballotDown-ballot campaigns lose votes to roll-off. A reminder at the door and in the inbox is the cheapest vote a local race can win.